City staff began analyzing potential revenues for 2012 in May. This can be a difficult exercise to undertake this early in the year, as we have only 1 quarter under our belts to use in forecasting.
Forecast expectations at this point can give us a good springboard to begin prioritizing costs, understanding that they may be refined over the course of the budget process, as more up to date information becomes available. Items like property taxes are very easy to forecast by this point, as the entire roll has already been billed, and much of the revenue is in by early May.
Other significant revenue items, like sales tax, are tougher to forecast as they come in throughout the year, and can range fairly significantly depending upon economic conditions. For these items, we tend to err on the conservative side, especially with only a single quarter under our belt.
As of now, 2012 revenue growth expectations are fairly flat. Property tax numbers appear to be holding steady, with minor additions to the taxable roll from expiration of PILOTs. Staff is holding a very conservative sales tax forecast, although first quarter numbers look promising.
Overall, the conservative sales tax forecast has 2012 revenue projections down 3% from 2011 forecasts. While this should be a significant motivator for the community, Council, and staff to begin prioritizing costs, care should be taken to observe sales tax and other revenue performance prior to cutting too deep.
Preliminary 2012 revenue forecasts can be found here.
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